ITALIAN banks were always parsimonious about handing out loans and Italians traditionally dislike credit. This means Italy could escape the worst effects of the credit crunch, said Pierpaolo Benigno, an economics professor at Rome’s Luiss University.
“Lending to companies, which has been well monitored, remains consistent and although private mortgages have dipped, that’s due to rising interest rates. There is no fallout from the credit crunch here.”
Consumer lending is now on the rise but Italy has some catching up to do, said Benigno. “Banks are traditionally more familiar with the people they lend to and are more vigilant, and there remains a cultural bias against credit.”
But crunch or no crunch, Italians are suffering from soaring food and fuel prices, with consumer spending dropping 2.3% year on year in April.
Shoe purchases were down 6.4%, while supermarkets report Italians are abandoning the Mediterranean diet they made famous for cheaper frozen foods.
The daily newspaper Corriere della Sera summed it up last week as: ‘The Italian paradox – fewer debts, greater pessimism’. Italians, it said, now faced the ‘Syndrome of the fourth week’ as fridges are emptied before payday.
The employers’ group Confindustria believes economic growth will hover at about 0.1% this year – well below the 0.5% predicted by the government – and Italian business confidence fell to a three-year low in June, as Italy’s legions of small manufacturers fear for the prospects of domestic and foreign sales.
Car crashes are reportedly decreasing in the capital at the end of each month as car-mad Romans run out of money to buy petrol, while managers at one low-cost supermarket run by a charity in Rome’s suburbs were surprised to see far more Italian than immigrant families showing up for cut-price food.
House prices did rise by about 1.6% in the first six months of the year, the economics institute Nomisma said, but house sales are set to fall this year by 5%-6% compared with 2007. Benigno said:
“There is a stability in house prices right now because both supply and demand have fallen but demand is now set to fall faster, with prices in the suburbs the first to fall.”